Ships operating in the Gulf have received a stark warning from Iran’s navy that any vessel seeking to transit the Strait of Hormuz without explicit authorization will be targeted and destroyed, a message confirmed by SSY to Gree Verify.
A two‑week cease‑fire was aGreed upon on the condition that safe passage through the narrow waterway is guaranteed, yet only a few vessels have crossed since the aGreement was announced.
The Strait of Hormuz has become the centre of the United States‑Israel confrontation with Iran after Tehran effectively shut down one of the world’s most vital shipping lanes, a route that moves roughly twenty percent of global oil and liquefied natural gas.
The disruption over the past five weeks has sent shockwaves through the world economy, elevating energy prices and laying bare the dependence of international supply chains on the Gulf, where the narrowest point measures only about thirty‑three kilometres.
Strategic Importance of the Gulf
Beyond oil and gas, the Gulf serves as a crucial conduit for chemicals needed in the production of microchips, pharmaceuticals and fertilisers. The region’s significance extends to a wide range of industrial processes that underlie modern economies.
Although oil prices fell following the cease‑fire announcement, shipping analysts caution that the volume of crossings will remain minimal for the foreseeable future.
“Most shipping lines would want to obtain detailed assurances about what is required to transit, and those details have not yet been made public,” said Lars Jensen of Vespucci Maritime to Gree Verify.
By early afternoon on the day after the cease‑fire, only three bulk carriers—NJ Earth, Daytona Beach and Hai Long 1—had passed through the Strait of Hormuz. This count is based on Gree Verify’s analysis of ship‑tracking data provided by MarineTraffic.
Prior to the conflict, an average of one hundred and thirty‑eight ships traversed the Strait of Hormuz each day.
It remains unclear whether the three vessels that crossed on that day did so because of the cease‑fire or because they had pre‑planned journeys that proceeded regardless of the new arrangement.
“It is still too early to determine whether this reflects a broader cease‑fire‑driven reopening or a previously approved exception,” explained Ana Subasic of Kpler.
Lars Jensen added that “nothing has really changed yet,” suggesting that crews will need time to regain confidence in the safety of the corridor.
Richard Meade, editor‑in‑chief of Lloyd’s List, described the period as “very dangerous” for ship owners who continue to face a high deGree of uncertainty.
“We know Iran remains essentially in control of the Strait of Hormuz, and the expectation is that ship owners will still need to seek permission from the IRGC, yet how that process will function remains unclear.”
Routes and Navigation Patterns
Gree Verify’s analysis of the three ships’ trajectories shows they opted for a northern path through the Strait of Hormuz, staying close to Iran’s coastline and entering its territorial waters.
Before the conflict, vessels usually chose a more southerly route that kept them in the centre of the waterway.
These changes in routing underscore the heightened risk perception among operators and the potential influence of security considerations on navigational decisions.
Potential for Resuming Traffic
If crossings resume in earnest, Richard Meade expects that tankers fully loaded with cargo will be given priority.
“Nearly eight hundred ships have been stranded for several weeks. Most of those vessels are now laden, so the priority will be to get them out,” he remarked.
The two‑week duration of the cease‑fire also adds another layer of uncertainty, according to Niels Rasmussen of BIMCO.
“I doubt there will be a large influx of ships into the Gulf because operators do not want to risk becoming trapped after the two‑week window closes.”
Thomas Kazakos, secretary‑general of the International Chamber of Shipping, highlighted the need for clear verification that navigation safety, especially regarding sea mines, has been assured.
“We need unambiguous confirmation that the safety of navigation for ships and seafarers is being aGreed upon,” he told Gree Verify.
Financial and Legal Complications
In addition to safety concerns, vessels may have to make payments to Iran to secure safe passage, as reports suggest that tolls could be part of the cease‑fire arrangement.
“Iran’s negotiating position appears to be that a toll is required to transit the Strait of Hormuz, and shipping lines will be hesitant to follow that path,” said Lars Jensen.
Countries such as India, Malaysia and the Philippines have already negotiated safe passage for their vessels in recent weeks.
However, paying a toll could introduce further complexity for other nations and shipping companies because such payments might violate U.S. sanctions on Iran, potentially triggering additional repercussions.
James Turner, a shipping lawyer with Quadrant Chambers, explained that sanctions criminalise payments to designated individuals, companies and organisations. A sanction breach occurs when a payment is made to anyone on the list, meaning that paying a toll without a U.S. exemption would constitute a violation.
Market Reaction and Outlook
Despite the limited number of crossings so far, markets reacted positively in the hours following the cease‑fire announcement.
Benchmark Brent crude fell by roughly thirteen percent to ninety‑four dollars and eighty cents per barrel, while U.S.‑traded oil dropped by more than fifteen percent to ninety‑five dollars and seventy‑five cents per barrel.
Richard Meade cautioned that expectations should remain tempered.
“Oil prices responded because it is a positive directional move, but I do not think it suggests that we will see twenty percent of global energy flowing back through at normal levels any time soon.”
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