- Aparna Deb
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 are likely to open on a weaker note on Thursday; Check stocks in focus today
Honestly, when I checked the pre‑market numbers early this morning, the vibe was a bit uneasy. The enthusiasm that we all felt after the US‑Iran ceasefire announcement seemed to be fading fast. The GIFT Nifty was hovering around 23,940 – that’s about 117 points down from the prior close of Nifty futures. In my experience, a gap‑down like this usually means investors are being a little extra cautious before the bell rings.
Mostly, the market’s mood is being set by what’s happening abroad. Asian markets were already on the defensive, and even though Wall Street had a massive surge the previous evening – the Dow posted its biggest single‑session percentage gain in a year – that hasn’t been enough to keep the Indian indices buoyant. So, expect a softer start for the Sensex and Nifty 50 today.
Yesterday’s rally and what made it happen
Let me take you back to yesterday. It felt like the whole country was waking up to good news. The US‑Iran ceasefire was declared, and the RBI had just announced its policy decision. Those two events together gave the Indian market a massive lift. The Sensex jumped 2,946.32 points, which is nearly a 4% rise, closing at 77,562.90. The Nifty 50 wasn’t far behind, climbing 873.70 points – that’s a 3.78% gain – and settling at 23,997.35.
Seeing those numbers in the morning newspaper, I could almost hear the excitement in the office canteen. Traders were already talking about how the market could keep climbing if things stayed stable. But the reality is, these big moves are fragile – especially when they depend on global diplomatic talks and oil price fluctuations.
What the experts are saying
Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice‑President of Research at Religare Broking, gave a very practical take. He said the continuation of this sharp rally will hinge on three things: buying momentum staying strong, crude oil prices not swinging wildly, and global cues staying favourable. In plain words, if traders keep buying, and oil doesn’t go bonkers, we might see a steadier run‑up.
From what I gather, Mishra also thinks investors will start looking for stock‑specific opportunities, particularly in sectors that are sensitive to interest rates. That includes real estate, auto finance, and even some consumer durables. But he warned everyone to stay alert – the market is still quite volatile, so a small dip could quickly turn into a bigger correction if the ceasefire talks break down.
Asian markets under pressure
Across the continent, the sentiment was clearly shaky. Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.59% while the broader Topix fell 0.42%. In South Korea, the Kospi dropped 0.90% and the Kosdaq lost 0.74%. You can imagine the traders on the floor in Tokyo and Seoul watching the numbers dip as news about the ceasefire kept streaming in.
For many of us who trade on the NSE or BSE, those Asian numbers matter because they often set the tone for how the Indian market will open. A weaker Asian start usually hints at a cautious approach from institutional investors here as well.
Wall Street’s surprising surge
On the other side of the world, the US markets were booming. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped a staggering 1,326.33 points – that’s a 2.85% gain – ending at 47,910.79. The S&P 500 rose 2.51% and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.80%.
Some of the big tech names that drove that rally included Nvidia (+2.23%), AMD (+4.64%), Amazon (+3.50%), Apple (+2.13%) and even Tesla, though it slipped a bit (‑0.98%). Airline stocks also had a good day, with Delta, Southwest, and United posting notable gains.
Even though the US market was upbeat, the impact on Indian equities is not always direct. The rise in US tech seems to have limited spill‑over to Indian markets, especially when there’s still uncertainty on the geopolitical front.
Ceasefire concerns linger
The White House announced that the US will hold direct talks with Iran, and Vice President JD Vance is set to lead the delegation to Islamabad this weekend. While that sounds promising, the reality on the ground remains tense.
There are reports of sporadic fighting across the Middle East, Iranian strikes on Gulf states, a partially blocked Strait of Hormuz, and fresh Israeli attacks on Lebanon. All these events keep the oil market jittery and the global risk sentiment fragile.
From a personal viewpoint, every time I hear about a new flare‑up, I check the oil charts – because we all know how quickly crude moves can affect the Indian rupee and, by extension, our equity markets.
Crude oil rises again
Speaking of oil, Brent crude futures were up 2.73% to $97.34 per barrel, while US WTI crude rose 3.17% to $97.40 per barrel. Those numbers might not look huge, but for an Indian trader, a 3% rise can translate to a noticeable impact on sectors like oil and gas, transport, and even FMCG, as input costs go up.
When I was in college, we used to discuss how a sudden oil price hike could push up the price of diesel, which in turn affected the cost of electricity generation for many factories. That same chain reaction can affect corporate earnings, which then filters down to stock prices.
Stocks to watch today
Now, let’s get to the practical part – the stocks that might catch our eye today. I’ve listed the key updates below, and I’ll add a few personal notes on why each might matter to you.
- Signature Global: Reported a 5% decline in pre‑sales to Rs 1,540 crore in Q4. This slowdown could indicate a softer real‑estate demand, especially after the recent rate hikes.
- Delhivery: Investors bought a 1.6% stake from Nexus Venture Partners for Rs 530 crore. Fresh capital may help the logistics firm expand its network, which could be a good story when e‑commerce volumes pick up again.
- ITC Hotels: GQG Partners sold nearly 1.29 crore shares worth Rs 197 crore. Large share sales often put pressure on the stock, but ITC’s diversified brand might cushion the impact.
- Ashiana Housing: Sales bookings more than doubled to Rs 1,289.7 crore in Q4. That’s a strong sign of recovery in the housing segment, potentially benefiting related construction stocks.
- KEC International: Won fresh orders worth Rs 2,518 crore. More infrastructure orders usually mean higher earnings for engineering‑procurement‑construction (EPC) firms.
- Shriram Finance: MUFG Bank acquired a 20% stake for Rs 39,618 crore. Such a big foreign investment could boost confidence in the NBFC sector.
- Max Healthcare Institute: Signed a deal to acquire a controlling stake in Kalinga Hospital. Consolidation in the healthcare space often leads to synergies and improved margins.
- Prestige Estates: Pre‑sales rose 10% to Rs 7,697 crore. Another positive signal for the real‑estate space, especially after a period of slower growth.
- Hyundai Motor India: Announced price hikes of up to 1% from next month. Slight price increases may affect the auto sales volume but could improve profitability.
- NTPC: Signed an MoU with Électricité de France for nuclear projects. This could diversify NTPC’s energy mix and open up long‑term growth avenues.
- Zydus Lifesciences and Biocon: Received US approval for generic dapagliflozin tablets used in diabetes treatment. Access to the US market often translates to higher export revenues.
From my own trading habit, I usually keep a close eye on stocks that have fresh capital inflows – like Delhivery – because they tend to have more momentum in the short term. On the other hand, companies announcing big deals, such as NTPC’s MoU, are more of a medium‑to‑long term play.
What to expect for the rest of the day
All things considered, the market may open lower, but the key will be how quickly the news about the ceasefire stabilises. If the US‑Iran talks make real progress, we could see a bounce back in the second half of the session. Conversely, any fresh reports of fighting or a spike in oil prices could keep the indices under pressure.
Personally, I keep an eye on the crude price chart every hour. When oil stays above $95 a barrel, I tend to be a bit more cautious with rate‑sensitive stocks. I also watch the US market opening – if Wall Street continues its strong run, that positive sentiment might filter through to the Indian market later in the day.
In short, be ready for a bit of a roller‑coaster. Use the gaps to spot entry points, but always keep your stop‑loss tight, especially if you’re trading the volatile sectors mentioned by Ajit Mishra.
