India May Experience Below‑Normal Monsoon in 2026 as El Niño Strengthens
Skymet Weather warns that a strengthening El Niño could diminish rainfall, especially during the latter half of the monsoon season, raising the risk of drought and agricultural stress.
Overall Outlook and Key Drivers
Current seasonal projections suggest that India could face a monsoon weaker than the long‑period average in 2026. The early outlook from Skymet Weather points to total precipitation reaching 94 % of the long‑period average (LPA). The principal factor behind this shortfall is the anticipated strengthening of the El Niño phenomenon during the summer months.
Quantitative Forecast from Skymet Weather
In the first official seasonal forecast released by Skymet Weather, the agency estimates that cumulative rainfall from June through September will average around 817 mm. This figure comes with a model error band of plus or minus five percent. Alongside the central estimate, Skymet Weather highlights a thirty‑percent probability of drought conditions developing and a forty‑percent chance that overall rainfall will fall below normal levels for the year.
The India Meteorological Department is slated to publish its own seasonal outlook later in the month, which may either corroborate or contrast with the numbers supplied by Skymet Weather.
Month‑by‑Month Distribution and Growing Risks
Examining the forecast on a monthly basis reveals a clear pattern of declining rainfall as the monsoon progresses. June is expected to be near normal, with precipitation projected at 101 % of LPA. However, July is forecast at 95 % of LPA, August at 92 % of LPA, and September at a mere 89 % of LPA. The probability of below‑normal rainfall rises sharply, reaching almost sixty percent in August and climbing to seventy‑nine percent by September.
This trajectory suggests that the early portion of the monsoon may deliver adequate rains, but a steady erosion of moisture is likely through the core months of the season.
Agricultural Implications of a Weak Monsoon
July and August constitute the most critical window for sowing kharif crops, including rice, pulses, and oilseeds. A notable deficit during these months could suppress crop yields across central, western, and eastern regions of India. Because a substantial share of India's agricultural output relies on timely monsoon rains, any shortfall threatens farm incomes, heightens rural distress, and can push food prices upward.
Skymet Weather’s managing director, Jatin Singh, emphasizes that the combination of a weak monsoon and an emerging drought scenario could exacerbate hardships for farming communities. While Skymet Weather hopes that 2026 does not evolve into a major drought, the agency warns that the power sector may also experience heightened stress due to reduced water availability for hydroelectric generation.
Spatial Variability Across the Subcontinent
The forecast indicates a disparate distribution of rainfall across India. In June, above‑normal precipitation is expected mainly over the Indo‑Gangetic plains and the Western Ghats. By July, deficits are likely to spread across northern, western, and central zones. August could see widespread below‑normal rainfall affecting north‑western, central, and southern regions. By September, only limited pockets in the southern and eastern parts of the country may receive normal rainfall, while the majority of the nation remains dry.
Role of the Northeast Monsoon and Winter Rains
Beyond the primary southwest monsoon, India also depends on the northeast monsoon that occurs from October through December. This shorter but vital rain system supplies essential moisture to southeastern states such as Tamil Nadu and portions of Andhra Pradesh, acting as a key water source for both agriculture and drinking supplies.
In addition, winter rainfall generated by western disturbances remains crucial for rabi crops, particularly wheat cultivated in northern India. Any reduction in these supplemental rainfalls could further compound the challenges posed by a weak southwest monsoon.
Potential Economic and Social Consequences
India’s heavy reliance on monsoon rainfall means that a below‑normal season can reverberate through the broader economy. Reduced agricultural output may lower rural disposable income, increase loan defaults among farmers, and strain government welfare schemes aimed at mitigating rural distress. Consumer price inflation may spike as food prices react to tighter supply, potentially prompting the central bank to adjust monetary policy.
Furthermore, sectors such as hydroelectric power generation could see curtailed output, leading to higher reliance on thermal and imported energy sources. This shift may raise overall production costs and impact industrial competitiveness.
Preparedness Measures and Recommendations
Stakeholders, including state governments, agricultural ministries, and water management authorities, are urged to activate contingency plans well before the onset of the core monsoon months. Emphasis on water‑saving irrigation techniques, such as drip and sprinkler systems, could mitigate the impact of reduced rainfall.
Moreover, early sowing of kharif crops in regions projected to receive near‑normal June rains may help capture available moisture before the anticipated decline in July and August. Diversification of crop varieties toward drought‑resilient strains can also provide a buffer against potential yield losses.
Skymet Weather recommends continuous monitoring of El Niño evolution, as rapid intensification could further suppress monsoon dynamics. Coordination between Skymet Weather, the India Meteorological Department, and state disaster management agencies will be essential for issuing timely alerts and implementing responsive measures.
