Commercial Shipping Through the Strait of Hormuz: Risks and Tactics

Commercial ships are still finding ways to cut through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite all the mounting tension and the threats floating around that waterway, they keep sailing. That’s what a report from The Wall Street Journal is saying.

Some vessels are reportedly turning off their lights. Switching off navigation systems. They do this while coordinating with the US military. It’s a calculated move. Trying to dodge Iranian attacks and get across safely.

The numbers are staggering, though. According to a piece with The New York Times, the US Central Command has guided nearly seventy commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz in the last three weeks alone. They’re moving in and out of the Persian Gulf.

The real danger is that ships passing near Iran without permission face the threat. Almost certain attack from Iranian drones or missiles. That’s what US officials quoted in the report.

Shipping analysts point out something else, too. These US-guided crossings seem to favor routes closer to Oman. A slight shift in geography, maybe, to stay safer.

And these few ships? A small number of them, including those massive oil and LNG tankers, have managed to slip through this dangerous route recently. The report called it a “tiny relief valve for the global economy.” A strange phrase for such a tense situation.

There’s this tactic being used. Some ships are sailing in what the maritime world calls “dark mode.”

What does that actually mean? It means turning off the Automatic Identification Systems. The electronic beacons ships normally use to broadcast where they are. And to avoid bumping into each other at sea.

Turning off the AIS makes ships harder to spot electronically. Less vulnerable to Iranian targeting. It’s a calculated risk, obviously.

The coordination is intense. Some ships are staying in contact with US military officials. They use radar, drones, all those tools to watch the traffic. And help them transit.

Shipowners and US officials told the newspaper that the military actually advises the vessels on when to go dark. How to react to the Iranian threats.

There was this operation earlier, under something called “Project Freedom.” The report noted some ships moved through a section of the Gulf that the United States had cleared.

That operation involved US naval and air escorts. Trying to help the commercial traffic move through the region.

But that initiative stopped. It got suspended. Iran started attacking vessels. Saudi Arabia restricted US access to its bases and airspace. The whole thing just ground to a halt.

Even after that, the US managed to clear a relatively safer route. They used underwater robots to sweep out mines.

Captain Tim Hawkins, who spoke for the US Central Command, said they are “continually communicating and coordinating with ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.” Constant communication.

The US also reportedly destroyed Iranian mine-laying boats and struck missile and drone sites. They called those actions defensive measures.

Then there’s this specific incident. A Greek supertanker. It reportedly crossed the strait in this manner earlier this week. It was carrying about two million barrels of crude oil.

That ship had been stranded in the Persian Gulf since early March. Stuck.

It sailed along the coast of Oman while keeping those communications open with US officials. Now it’s heading toward India with its cargo. Just moving on.

The Greek shipowners who managed these crossings are now getting requests. Clients want similar arrangements for their shipments. It’s becoming a known, if risky, workaround.

Fewer ships are actually doing the dark journey. Data from maritime intelligence firm Kpler showed fewer than five ships per day have traveled “dark” through the Strait since March 2nd.

Most vessels, though, still stick to the Iran-designated shipping route. They hug the Iranian coastline in the northern part of the strait.

Before all this escalated, more than a hundred ships crossed the channel daily. Now? Traffic has repeatedly slowed down, or nearly stopped, during military exchanges. Including those recent US strikes on Iranian sites.

Michelle Bockmann, a maritime intelligence analyst at Windward, put it plainly. “Everyone’s waiting for a small window to open to get their ships out.” Waiting.

The financial pressure is mounting, too. There’s growing pressure on ship operators to get their vessels out of the Gulf.

Maritime analysts cited by the paper pointed out the cost of waiting. Operators of large crude carriers spend between ten thousand and fifteen thousand dollars daily just on fuel and crew expenses while the ships sit still. Insurance premiums have shot up. Crews are getting extra pay because of the war-risk conditions.

Experts warn that sailing in the dark carries massive safety risks. It’s not just about avoiding detection.

Ships in the dark can’t easily see other vessels electronically. They have to rely entirely on radar and the experience of the crew to avoid a collision.

Claire Jungman, who works on maritime risk and intelligence at Vortexa, said there are obvious safety and security risks.

Insurance companies are split on the dangers. Some charge higher premiums for vessels with naval escorts. They figure being more visible to the military makes them targets. Others offer lower rates because of the added protection.

The insurance rates for ships crossing the strait have jumped. They’re sitting between two and four percent of the vessel’s value. That’s up from about a quarter of a percent during peacetime.

And Iran? They reportedly insisted during ongoing talks that they should still approve ship traffic. They even suggested they could impose tolls on commercial vessels. A real sticking point.