Karnataka Congress Power Struggle and Cabinet Reshuffle

Those Karnataka talks happening in Delhi on Tuesday, the ones the Congress high command was having—they aren't just about whether Siddaramaiah stays or if Shivakumar takes the reins anymore.

It’s moving, the immediate fight between the leaders, who showed up with their usual crowd at Indira Bhawan, is really about the cabinet reshuffle . How those portfolios get handed out is what’s actually going to decide the power balance in Karnataka. That’s the real battle now.

Sources tell CNN-News18 that the discussions involving Siddaramaiah, Shivakumar, Kharge, and even Rahul Gandhi are boiling down to performance, managing the factions, and getting ready for the Rajya Sabha elections. The central leadership, they seem keen on avoiding an open fight between the two camps right now. It’s a politically explosive moment.

The cabinet reshuffle has been hanging there for months already. People from both sides are growing really unhappy about representation and who gets what post. Delhi is seeing this reshuffle as the only practical way to pause the power struggle temporarily, without having to decide the chief minister question immediately.

It really comes down to two things, the insiders are saying. Minister performance and the power-sharing dynamic between the Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar camps.

That means the new cabinet might just end up being a scoreboard for the Karnataka Congress.

If Siddaramaiah’s side gets most of the influential ministries, that signals the high command is leaning toward keeping things as they are. But if Shivakumar’s camp grabs the heavyweight departments, that suggests Delhi is slowly setting him up for a bigger role later on.

Shivakumar’s supporters aren't just asking for more seats. They want "meaty" portfolios. Portfolios that actually carry administrative and political weight.

There’s talk about control over departments with serious political leverage, like Home. The Shivakumar camp feels that just symbolic nods won't cut it for MLAs who backed him during the 2023 government formation.

On the other side, the argument from Siddaramaiah’s side is different. They point out Shivakumar rebuilt the party after the 2019 collapse. He was central to winning the 2023 assembly. He’s seen as crucial for consolidating the Vokkaliga vote ahead of future elections.

So, a bigger cabinet footprint is being pushed internally as both a reward and a necessary move.

Siddaramaiah’s side, meanwhile, is expected to push hard for maximum representation for their loyal MLAs in any shuffle.

But there’s the counter-argument. The chief minister’s camp thinks the whole governance model, the welfare structure, is still tied to Siddaramaiah. Weakening his grip on key ministries could just cause chaos.

That’s why the Siddaramaiah faction will insist on keeping control of the core governance departments. They want to reward MLAs aligned with the AHINDA coalition. They absolutely don't want any hint that a power shift is already happening.

This is critical because Siddaramaiah’s supporters see any big concession to Shivakumar as a warning. A sign that Delhi is planning a future leadership change.

The leadership seems to be thinking about the bigger picture. They can’t afford internal conflict messing with Rajya Sabha calculations, national opposition coordination, or Karnataka’s long-term electoral game. That’s why these talks aren't about picking a successor. They’re about engineering a careful balance.

So, there are a few paths being floated.

• First, the status quo, but with a carefully balanced cabinet. This seems the most likely short-term play. Siddaramaiah stays CM. Shivakumar gets influence through portfolios. The reshuffle becomes the compromise. The outcome hinges entirely on who ends up with the most powerful ministries.
• Second, Shivakumar takes over as CM. This is the trickier, more dramatic option. Some sources quoted by India Today suggest they are exploring a formula where Siddaramaiah moves to the Rajya Sabha. This would require a massive cabinet reorganization just to keep things from falling apart.
• Third, the wild card entry. This is less likely, but it’s being discussed. If the two factions can’t sort themselves out, Mallikarjun Kharge might step in as the compromise figure. Party insiders know Kharge has nurtured the ambition to lead Karnataka for years. But bringing him in would shake the entire national structure. It would force Rahul Gandhi and the party top to completely rethink their internal balance.