The Long-Term Impact of Geopolitical Conflict on Global Oil Markets
If you thought oil prices would just slam back down to pre-war levels right after some US-Iran peace deal, analysts are saying it’s going to be way messier. Far more expensive, actually.
Even while the talks drag on over ending that two-month West Asia conflict, energy experts are warning that the whole global oil market might take years. Not months. It’s going to take a long time to shake off the geopolitical punch the war delivered.
David Goldman, who was on CNN’s Situation Room on Tuesday, painted a pretty bleak picture for global energy. He pointed right at the multi-year Brent futures chart. He basically said it’s going to take a huge amount of time for crude to finally ditch that geopolitical risk premium. To get back to those stable levels before all the fighting started? He estimates it’s going to be a long haul.
“You want $3 gas again?” Goldman asked. “You’re going to have to wait maybe six years.” He threw out a timeline. “If Americans want $3 gas, they are going to have to wait until 2032 to see that sub-$70 oil level again.”
The whole current oil shock? That started way back in late February, just before the US-Israeli military action against Iran kicked off. February 27, 2026. That was the last trading day before what became known as “Operation Epic Fury.” Brent crude was sitting pretty at $72.48 per barrel then. Some regional spots even dipped near $67.
That stability? Gone. Almost instantly.
The military escalation, mixed with all the panic about what would happen to the Strait of Hormuz—that critical shipping choke point—that’s what sent shockwaves through every energy market. Maritime insecurity in the Persian Gulf, shipping jams, and general supply fears just pushed prices way up.
By Tuesday, Brent crude was hovering around $96.50. Gains kept coming as everyone worried about long-term supply disruption just wouldn't stop.
And the analysts? They keep pointing to the same thing. Even if Washington and Tehran manage some breakthrough aGreement and shipping gets back to normal, the damage done by the conflict? That stuff takes years to undo.
JPMorgan Chase is predicting something specific. They expect Brent crude to average $104 per barrel in the third quarter. Then around $98 in the fourth quarter this year. And that’s even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens smoothly.
Kevin Book, managing director at ClearView Energy Partners, offered a different take on the immediate crisis. He suggested the actual logistical emergency might ease pretty fast once a ceasefire happens. De-mining the Strait, getting stranded ships moving, restarting some oil production—that could happen in weeks or months after a deal. But he stressed the long game. Restoring the infrastructure? Rebuilding inventories? Stabilizing those long supply chains? That’s going to take much longer.
“I don’t think anybody is expecting to return to averaging $60-a-barrel oil anytime soon,” Book told CNN. “It will take a while for supply to come back on stream.”
The real sticking point now seems to be how fast those tankers can actually move through the Strait of Hormuz. That waterway handles a massive chunk of the world’s oil exports. It’s central to everything, energy security, and inflation everywhere.
Sultan Al Jaber, the CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, gave a stark warning last week. He said even if the fighting stopped right away, it would still take at least four months to get flows through the strait back to just eighty percent of what they were before the conflict.
A full return to normal shipping activity? That’s unlikely before the first half of 2027. For people already wrestling with inflation and high fuel costs, the message from these analysts is getting clearer every day. Even if diplomacy works out and the war ends, the economic fallout from that West Asia conflict is going to keep messing with oil markets for years to come.
Written by Gree News Team — Senior Editorial Board
Gree News Team covers international news and global affairs at Gree News. Our collective of senior editors is dedicated to providing independent, accurate, and responsible journalism for a global audience.
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