The Shifting Narrative of the US-Iran Conflict and Negotiations

Last weekend, Donald Trump was talking about a peace deal with Iran. Like, on the brink of finishing it. But then Monday hit. The US carried out fresh strikes on Iran. It just seemed like a complete contradiction.

This whole US-Iran war, it’s just become this familiar mess. Trump keeps talking about negotiating. Blockading. Bombing. All at once. And he’s claimed more than once that the war is already over.

You see the disconnect, though. Between what he says and what actually happens. There’s this wide gap. Several times, he threatened extreme force, but then he just held his fire. It’s all just noise, really.

His claims about major diplomatic progress? Those felt totally unfounded. People slammed him for making those remarks, trying to relieve political pressure, trying to calm the markets.

Look at some of the actual words he put out. Back in March, he wrote on Truth Social, “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER !”

Then, just a few days later, he changed the tone. March 13th, he wrote, “Iran, which is totally defeated and wants a deal.”

But then, March 23rd, things shifted again. He wrote, “… VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS…”

That comment had an outsize effect on the markets. It happened right when he told the Pentagon not to attack any Iranian power plants or energy infrastructure for five days.

Trump’s suggestion that the administration was looking for an off-ramp from the conflict actually buoyed investor sentiment for a bit. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, settled below $100 a barrel for the first time in nearly two weeks. That’s a sharp drop. Remember March 9th? He said the Iran war was “very complete.”

And on that same day, he also claimed talks with Tehran were happening. That there was a “real possibility of making a deal.”

Iran’s parliamentary speaker just dismissed it all. He wrote on X that “fakenews is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped.”

It just keeps cycling. He said, “We have had very, very strong talks…” on March 23rd. Then, March 26th, he said they were “begging” them to make a deal. “Of course they’re negotiating, they’ve been obliterated. Who wouldn’t negotiate?”

Then, days later, he went back to threats. March 30th, he said he would take out Iran’s energy infrastructure if they didn't open the Strait of Hormuz immediately.

And then the stock market plunged. It hit its lowest point of the year soon after. March 31st, Trump promised the US would be leaving Iran “very soon.” That gave Tehran some breathing room.

But the reality is, the whole thing keeps shifting. On April 1st, addressing the nation, he didn't predict an immediate resolution. He just said his military objectives would be completed “very shortly,” and added that diplomacy was underway.

The remarks kept pushing the market around.

As negotiations went on, his statements swung wildly. One moment, diplomatic progress. The next, threats of military escalation. But nothing materialised yet.

Then came the escalation again. On March 31st, he said, “We’ll be leaving very soon.” Then, April 4th, he changed it completely: “Time is running out — 48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them.”

April 6th, he brought up a proposal. He said, “They’ve made a proposal, and it’s a significant proposal.”

Then came the night of April 7th. The most dramatic thing. He said, “A whole civilisation will die tonight, never to be brought back again.”

But somehow, by late evening, he had the biggest news of the Iran war in his announcement basket: a two-week Pakistan-mediated ceasefire. Something that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The markets welcomed that, but they didn't see the big jump they saw in April.

Tehran, though, said that keeping the fighting in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah violated that deal. They kept the strait shut. Trump claimed Iran was failing to uphold its end.

Before all this started, that strait was huge. Nearly 20% of global oil and gas supplies passed through it. It was a critical chokepoint. But when the fighting kicked off, maritime movement dropped sharply.

Even though Iran promised the waterway would reopen under the ceasefire, it hasn't happened.

Tensions flared again when the first round of talks collapsed on April 11th. That prompted Trump to announce a US naval blockade targeting Iranian ports, trying to choke off oil exports. Tehran warned that the strait would stay shut as long as the blockade lasted.

In late April, Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely and said US officials would go back to Pakistan for more talks. Then he cancelled those talks.

By April 28th, gasoline prices shot up. They hit their highest level in four years. It seemed the markets were finally getting tired of Trump’s bullish commentary.

Then came May. On May 3rd, he wrote, “I am fully aware that my Representatives are having very positive discussions with the Country of Iran, and that these discussions could lead to something very positive for all.”

Then, May 8th, he mentioned getting a letter supposedly that night. “I’m getting a letter supposedly tonight, so we’ll see how that goes.”

And then, May 10th, the sudden shift. “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!”

Then, May 18th, the threat came back. He said they were getting ready for a major attack tomorrow, and he put it off because of the big discussions with Iran.

Finally, on May 23rd, the tone shifted again. He wrote, “Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly.”

And May 24th, he said he told his representatives not to rush a deal. Time was on their side.

Then, May 25th, the final, simple summation: “It will only be a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all.”

Early May, he projected confidence again about talking to Tehran. But those hopes just ran into fresh setbacks. Iran sent a letter on May 10th reiterating their hard line, offering no real concessions. Trump called it “a piece of garbage.”

Then, over the Memorial Day weekend, he said Washington was nearly aGreeing to prolong the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But he added the caveat: negotiations could still take longer than expected.

By Monday, tensions were back up. The US launched strikes in southern Iran while Trump warned the “shooting” could resume.

And yet, even with all that fighting, talks were still going on as of Tuesday. Just ongoing.